The latest job figures from the Office for National Statistics show that unemployment fell while the number of those in work rose in the second quarter of the year. As Mel Stride, the Conservative spokesman, observed, this was more evidence that “Labour’s claims of a terrible economic inheritance are a complete fabrication”. They also make the decision to hold an early election even more perplexing since interest rates have also started to come down.
But the headline statistics tell only part of the story. The most startling figures concern the levels of economic activity among people of working age and the reasons behind them. Around 9.5 million people aged 18 to 65 are neither in work nor looking for a job. Some will be students or mothers taking a break to raise children. Others will be early retirees who judge that they have enough in savings to see them through the rest of their lives. But the fastest growing cohort are those taking time away because they are ill, a group that has grown markedly since the Covid pandemic.
This is a huge headache for the new government as it seeks to generate the economic growth on which its entire programme is predicated. Even with millions available to work, businesses are struggling to recruit staff, so they are looking abroad.
Despite promises to clamp down on immigration, more than a million foreign workers have come to Britain since the eve of the pandemic, while the number of British-born people in work has fallen by almost the same amount. UK-born people now account for just under 80 per cent of all employment in Britain, down from 92 per cent at the turn of the century.
These are the realities that challenge the Government’s rhetoric to get Britain moving again. Will ministers cut benefits to stop people opting out of the labour market? Will we hear from Sir Keir Starmer about the importance of the work ethic as he seeks to press the work-shy and feckless back into the jobs market? Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, said: “If you can work, you should work.” We await her plan for making that a reality.
This is the biggest problem the country faces and much else stems from it, including the entrenching of an underclass that provided many of those involved in the recent riots. Without effective action to bring more people back into the workforce, sustained economic growth will be impossible.
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