We all know the economy is in a bad way. But it could all too easily get worse. Especially if the Government listens to a barking new plan from the higher education lobby group known as Universities UK.
Because, this week, it argued that we need the proportion of school-leavers going into higher education to rise – to a staggering 70 per cent.
That’s right: 70. Far beyond the dreams even of Tony Blair, who – almost exactly 25 years ago – set a target of a mere 50 per cent. At the time, it seemed pretty ambitious. Yet now, apparently, it’s hopelessly inadequate.
Of course, you can see why universities themselves would like the sound of this plan. Right now, many of them are struggling financially. They no longer have as many international students to milk. And applications from British teenagers have fallen for two years straight. So a drive to reach this extraordinary new target could save their skins.
For the young, however, it would be a disastrous mistake. In fact, it would be ruinous for the country as a whole, too.
Universities themselves will never admit it. But the truth is, we already have far too many young people doing worthless degrees – and nowhere near enough doing apprenticeships. This has led to a shocking dearth of tradesmen. According to a report last year, we have 166,000 fewer than we need. Electricians, joiners, painter-decorators, plumbers: all have become alarmingly thin on the ground.
Of course, some people might be tempted to blame Brexit, since we no longer have Polish plumbers coming over here to make up the shortfall. But, if anything, Brexit is protecting us. These days, Poland is well on its way to being richer than Britain. So, if we still had free movement, our few remaining British plumbers would probably be heading over there.
Even as it is, though, many of the tradesmen we do have are getting perilously close to retirement. Half of them are over the age of 50 – while young people simply aren’t coming forward to take their places. Perhaps because we’ve spent the past 25 years telling them all to go to university, instead.
At any rate, the lack of tradesmen is not merely an inconvenience for homeowners who need their downstairs loo fixed, or their bedrooms redecorated. It’s a disaster for the economy. Kingfisher – the company that owns Screwfix, B&Q and TradePoint – has forecast that, by 2030, this recruitment crisis will have cost the UK an eye-watering £98 billion – yes, billion – in economic growth.
All of which shows why we should ignore this wild new target to get 70 per cent of school-leavers into higher education. Britain has no need for yet more graduates in sociology or gender studies – or, frankly, the arts and humanities in general. Far too many young people today are leaving university with nothing but a mountain of personal debt. So instead, let’s encourage them to pursue careers in the fields where this country is desperately lacking.
And anyway: if they get a trade, they’ll have one of the few jobs that can’t be stolen by AI.
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