For an industry built on the quiet purr of its expensive technology, the sound of the electric car market screeching to a halt is too loud not to be heard.
The ensuing pile-up threatens to turn into a battle for survival – the car industry’s equivalent of the Hunger Games that some of the biggest names may not walk away from.
The dynamics are very simple.
It is a classic case of supply greatly exceeding demand, in this instance brought about by politicians and regulators determined to impose arbitrary deadlines on carmakers regardless of whether they are realistic and without any consideration for the wider fallout.
It is further evidence, if any was needed, of the wrong-headed pursuit of net zero at all costs. Almost eight in 10 new electric cars are now being sold at a discount as demand stalls – a sharp increase on just over half a year ago. And while a similar proportion of petrol cars are experiencing price cuts, electric vehicle (EV) prices are being cut more sharply.
Meanwhile, the market is increasingly being propped up by tax-efficient corporate schemes as appetite among private buyers goes into reverse.
Fleet purchases have accounted for 60pc of registrations so far this year, up from a little over half over the same period in 2022.
Private sales have fallen nearly 10pc, suggesting the so-called early adopter phase that drove the first wave of purchases is already over. In Germany, Sweden and Italy, electric sales have plunged 30pc.
As carmakers scramble to meet strict deadlines for phasing out petrol and diesel models that have been imposed on them by complicit governments, overproduction of electric cars is taking place on a massive scale.
The industry may argue that it has no choice as companies which fail to hit targets must pay fines or trade carbon credits. But the result will still be the same: millions of unsold electric cars piling up in giant lots and at dealerships.
Major European ports are already being turned into giant car depots, as manufacturers, distributors, and retailers struggle with the demand slowdown.
And despite all the fears about Western brands being unable to compete with the cheap Chinese models flooding the market, cars from the East Asia are a big contributor to the bottlenecks being experienced at many major ports.
Some Chinese brands have been sitting in European ports for up to 18 months, prompting some to demand proof of onward transport from importers, according to reports.
Without the demand to support the vast number of cars flying off the production line, new data shows that the global car industry is on course to produce as many as 20 million more electric cars over the next three years than the market can absorb. It is hard to think of another example of such a staggering misallocation of capital. The dot-com bubble perhaps? That is one analyst’s analogy.
The optimistic take is that such a vast glut will be great for consumers because it means prices will come tumbling down, paving the way for the next wave of consumers – those that American sociologist Everett Rogers dubbed the “early adopters” – for whom cost is a key factor.
Yet, price is only one reason why the majority of consumers continue to stick with petrol and diesel models.
The obstacles to mass adoption are by now well-trodden but it is worth recalling that they are numerous: range anxiety; lack of charging points; fears over reliability; repair bills; insurance costs; concerns about qualified technician numbers; limited selection; and of course, affordability.
Prices are coming down fairly sharply. Tesla has just announced a string of price cuts in China, the US and Europe following a slowdown in sales.
The expected influx of cheap Chinese versions will help to bring down prices further. There will be bargains to be had for those that time their first purchase right.
But equally, there is every reason to think there will be a whole generation of consumers that led the way for whom the depreciation will be so severe that in a couple of years, they will be sitting on huge losses and the mess will put them off buying again.
A more realistic view is that the EV market is on the cusp of a major reckoning that will claim some serious scalps.
The cracks are already emerging.
Arrival, the electric van start-up that some laughably called “Britain’s Tesla”, has declared bankruptcy in the UK, just months after Sweden’s electric lorry outfit Volta Trucks went bust.
California’s Fisker, which even more preposterously once likened itself to Apple, is expected to go the same way.
These are the weaker players but it would be a mistake to assume the big manufacturers are immune by virtue of size alone. A rethink is already taking place. Ford is considering partnerships with General Motors after warning that some battery-operated models have become unprofitable because of spiralling raw material prices.
Rental giant Hertz has blamed high repair costs for a decision to dump 20,000 electric vehicles. Others are tentatively pulling back.
Yet, the bigger picture is still one in which the industry goliaths have set aside billions to build entirely new line-ups from scratch.
Stellantis, maker of Fiat and Peugeot, is planning to introduce more than 75 fully electric models this decade, while Volkswagen has earmarked €180bn for electrification. It is a massive throw of the dice.
Elon Musk recently said that China’s electric upstarts will demolish most Western carmakers unless trade barriers are erected. But it may not come to that. Some could end up squandering such vast sums of capital that they end up destroying themselves.
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