A number of top Tory ministers are set to lose their seats in the upcoming general election as the Conservative’s faltering campaign grinds on, according to a new shock poll.
In devastating news for prime minister Rishi Sunak, YouGov’s poll has predicted 14 Tory big beasts are set to lose their seats to Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Reform UK and Plaid Cymru.
The Conservatives would drop to just 108 seats, losing 257 of the seats they won in 2019, according to YouGov’s most recent projection. Labour would win a huge majority of 425 seats, up by 223.
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Among those set to be outsted are Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt, Mel Stride, Alex Chalk, Mark Harper, Grant Shapps and Gillian Keegan.
Here, The Independent takes a closer look at the Tory candidates set to lose their seats.
Jeremy Hunt
Jeremy Hunt is a long-serving Tory grandee, having served in multiple senior roles across government, including Foreign Secretary, Health Secretary and his current post as Chancellor of the Exchequer.
He will be standing in a new constituency this year – Godalming and Ash – after his seat in South-West Surrey, which he has held since 2005, is set to be abolished in the recent boundary changes.
He has a 10,720 majority but is set to lose the seat to the Liberal Democrats under the new YouGov poll published on Wednesday 19 June.
Grant Shapps
Grant Shapps is the MP for Welwyn Hatfield, taking up his first government position as a housing minister under David Cameron’s leadership.
Since then, Mr Shapps has served in several senior roles across government, including as transport secretary under Boris Johnson, home secretary under Liz Truss, energy secretary under Rishi Sunak and now secretary of state for defence.
He has a 10,773 majority and is set to lose his seat to Labour in the general election on 4 July, the new poll found.
Gillian Keegan
Gillian Keegan entered parliament in 2017, and has served as Education Secretary since 2022, having held a number of junior ministerial posts before that.
She has a 19,622 majority in her seat of Chichester but is vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats, according to the shock poll.
Penny Mordaunt
The leader of the house, Penny Mordaunt, has been a popular figure in the Conservative party over the last few years, having stood for the leadership twice in 2023.
Ms Mordaunt held several senior government positions under Theresa May’s leadership, including Defence Secretary and International Development Secretary.
Ms Mordaunt is now on track to lose her seat to Labour in the constituency of Portsmouth North, where she has served as the MP since 2010, according to the poll.
Mark Harper
Mark Harper was elected in 2005 in the constituency of Forest of Dean. He has served as Transport Secretary since 2022 and previously worked as Chief Whip.
Under the new YouGov Poll, Mr Harper is vulnerable to Labour. He currently has a 15,869 majority in his Gloucestershire seat.
Johnny Mercer
Johnny Mercer has served as MP for Plymouth Moor View since 2010 and has attended cabinet as Minister for Veteran Affairs since 2019.
He is set to lose his seat to Labour, with the Reform party predicted to nibble away at the Conservative majority, taking around 11 per cent of the total vote share.
Alex Chalk
Alex Chalk won the seat of Cheltenham from the Lib Dems back in 2015, and has been viewed as a rising star in the party over the past few years.
Mr Chalk has long been at risk due to his wafer thin majority of just under 1000 votes, which he is now set to lose to the Lib Dems at the next election, according to the new poll.
Michelle Donelan
Michelle Donelan has been Member of Parliament for Chippenham in Wiltshire since 2015, where she has a 11,288 majority.
She was first appointed Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology on 7 February 2023. Under the new poll, she is predicted to lose her seat to the Liberal Democrats.
Michael Tomlinson
Micheal Tomlinson has been a Member of Parliament for Mid Dorset and North Poole since the 2015 general election.
He was appointed Minister of State at the Home Office on 7 December 2023, and worked as the Illegal Migration Minister. He is also set to lose his seat to the Liberal Democrats.
David T C Davies
Mr Davies has served as Secretary of State for Wales since 2022, having previously served in junior ministerial roles and as the Chair for the Welsh Affairs Select Committee.
He became the MP for Monmouth back in 2005, but is set to stand in the new seat of Monmouthshire, as his previous seat will be abolished under the boundary changes. However, Mr Davies is set to lose his seat to Labour.
Steve Baker
Steve Baker was appointed Minister of State at the Northern Ireland Office on 7 September 2022. He was elected as Conservative MP for Wycombe in 2010.
He was previously Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at the Department for Exiting the European Union from June 2017 to 9 July 2018.
Under the new poll, Mr Baker is set to lose his seat, which he is campaigning for while on holiday on Greece, to Labour.
Mel Stride
Mel Stride was appointed Secretary of State for Work and Pensions on 25 October 2022. He was elected the Conservative MP for Central Devon in 2010.
He was previously Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons from 23 May 2019 to 24 July 2019, and Financial Secretary to the Treasury and Paymaster General from June 2017 to May 2019.
According to YouGov’s shock poll, he will lose his seat to Labour in the 4 July general election.
Simon Hart
The Government’s chief whip Simon Hart could lose his seat to Plaid Cymru. YouGov’s previous poll predicted he would lose it to Labour.
Mr Hart has served in ministerial roles under both Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak, having assumed office in 2010.
Richard Holden
Richard Holden was appointed Minister without Portfolio in the Cabinet Office on 13 November 2023. He was elected as the MP for North West Durham in 2019 and serves as the Tory chairman.
The YouGov poll has predicted a toss-up between Reform and Labour in Basildon and Billericay, which means he could lose the contest for parliament.
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