How is the general election likely to play out in Northern Ireland?

If Britain now has a five-party system – Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Reform UK and Greens – then so does Northern Ireland, though with completely different major participants. There are now two principal unionist parties – the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which was founded by Ian Paisley, and the older (and smaller) Ulster Unionist party (UUP).

On the non-unionist side we find a nationalist party, the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), and the now dominant republican movement, Sinn Fein. Non-aligned or neutral on the issue of a united Ireland is the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland, which has enjoyed sustained growth during the power-sharing era.

In the six counties, even a quarter of a century since the end of the Troubles, the “national” or “constitutional” issue still exerts some influence on loyalties – in part, a consequence of Brexit reawakening some older controversies about the border on the island of Ireland and the strength of the economic union between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

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