The 2024 general election has been the most “polled” in British history. More companies have conducted more polls, and with a greater variety of methods, than in any previous contest. In terms of seats, the predictions have varied wildly – from around 55 seats for the Conservatives up to around 200.
One fact, though, has been remarkably constant since before the beginning of the campaign – indeed, since at least the start of the year. Labour has enjoyed a consistent lead of around 20 percentage points over the Conservatives, and the near-certainty of forming the next government with at the very least a substantial majority. Still, there are some interesting questions to be asked...
Could the polls be wrong?
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