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Louise Thomas
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France’s far-right National Rally has failed to become the largest party at parliamentary elections, according to shock exit poll results, which forecast the left-wing New Popular Front coalition is in pole position.
In what would be a bitter blow for Marine Le Pen, an exit poll by Ipsos suggested the NFP coalition will win between 172 and 192 seats, with the Emmanuel Macron-backing Ensemble group taking second place and Ms Le Pen’s party in third place when the results are confirmed on Monday morning.
Following the exit polls, prime minister Gabriel Attal said he would offer his resignation.
Mr Macron took even his own allies by surprise in calling the snap election last month, after the anti-immigration National Rally made huge gains in European elections.
The president gambled that French voters would block the far right as they have in the past.
But the National Rally instead won a larger share than ever in the first round of voting on 30 June.
More than 200 candidates from the Macron-backing Ensemble alliance and left-wing New Popular Front stepped down in seats otherwise facing a three-way battle, in a so-called “republican front” against the far right.
Key Points
- France’s far-right defeated in election, shock exit poll suggests
- Leftist Melenchon hails ‘immense relief’ for France after exit polls
- ‘Our victory has been merely delayed,’ claims Marine Le Pen
- Voter turnout highest since 1981, as of 5pm
- What happened in the first round of voting?
Spain’s PM hails ‘rejection of extreme right’ in France and UK
Spain’s prime minister Pedro Sanchez has hailed what he described as “the rejection of the extreme right” in both France and Britain.
He wrote on X/Twitter: “This week, two of the largest countries in Europe have chosen the same path that Spain chose a year ago: rejection of the extreme right and a decisive commitment to a social left that addresses people’s problems with serious and brave policies.
“The United Kingdom and France have said YES to progress and social advancement and NO to the regression in rights and freedoms. There is no agreement or government with the extreme right.”
Andy Gregory8 July 2024 01:01Pollster points to far right’s own shortcomings over disappointing election result
Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella attributed their National Rally party’s setback to what Bardella termed the “disgraceful alliance” of leftists, who he said had caricatured the party and disrespected its voters.
But Ipsos pollster Brice Teinturier pointed to the party’s own shortcomings, including revelations before the run-off that several of its candidates had expressed xenophobic views, raising questions over whether the party had really ditched its more toxic past.
“What happened is also that RN candidates themselves showed in this campaign that they either were not ready or had in their ranks candidates that are antisemitic, xenophobic or homophobic,” Mr Teinturier told France 2 television.
Andy Gregory8 July 2024 00:28What could happen next?
France’s constitution states that president Emmanuel Macron will decide who to ask to form a government.
But whoever he picks faces a confidence vote in the National Assembly, which will convene for 15 days from 18 July – meaning Mr Macron needs to name someone acceptable to a majority of parliamentarians.
The president will likely be hoping to peel off Socialists and Greens from the leftist alliance, isolating Jean-Luc Melenchon’s France Unbowed (LFI), to form a centre-left coalition with his own bloc.
However, there was no sign of an imminent break-up of the New Popular Front at this stage.
Another possibility is a government of technocrats that would manage day-to-day affairs but not oversee structural changes. But it is not clear that the left-wing bloc would support this scenario, which would still require the backing of parliament.
Andy Gregory7 July 2024 23:59Which notable results have been declared so far?
Outgoing prime minister Gabriel Attal has retained his National Assembly seat in Hauts-de-Seine, according to results published by France’s interior ministry.
Under the banner of the New Popular Front, former Socialist president Francois Hollande also defeated his National Rally opponent by 43 per cent of the vote to 31 per cent, despite the Macron-backed Republican candidate refusing to withdraw in the second round of voting.
Aurelien Rousseau, a former Macron-allied health minister who resigned recently in protest against the controversial far right-backed immigration bill, was also elected under the New Popular Front banner.
Meanwhile, former health minister Olivier Veran – who held the prominent post during the Covid pandemic – was defeated by the leftist candidate in Isere.
Andy Gregory7 July 2024 23:47Bernie Sanders congratulates French left
Former US presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders has congratulated the French left “for taking on right-wing extremism and winning”.
Andy Gregory7 July 2024 23:31Declared results widely mirror exit polling, reports suggest
Le Monde is reporting the results of 558 of the 577 seats up for grabs in France’s National Assembly election, citing the interior ministry.
According to the newspaper, the New Popular Front alliance has so far secured 177, while Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble coalition has 157, and the National Rally and its allies have 141.
Clashes with riot police in Paris and Nantes
There have been clashes with riot police in Paris and Nantes, with tear gas fired in the latter city, images taken by photojournalists suggest.
Attal signals he will stay on as PM during Paris Olympics
Despite intending to tender his resignation, French prime minister Gabriel Attal has signalled he will remain in the post during the upcoming Paris Olympics and for as long as needed – given that polling projections show that no party has won an outright majority.
There likely will be weeks of intense political negotiations to choose a new prime minister and form a government.
Latest Ipsos projections in French election
Here is the most recent projection from Ipsos:
The leftist New Popular Front is expected to win between 177 and 192 seats, the Macron-backing Ensemble could win between 152 and 158, while the National Rally and its far-right allies are expected to take 138 to 145 seats.
Andy Gregory7 July 2024 22:45Jubilation and relief in Paris at exit poll results
In Paris’s Stalingrad square, supporters on the left cheered and applauded as exit poll projections showing the alliance ahead – and the far right in third place – flashed up on a giant screen.
Cries of joy also rang out in Republique plaza in eastern Paris, with people spontaneously hugging strangers and several minutes of nonstop applause after the projections landed.
But France’s far right nevertheless appears to have made significant gains on the 89 seats it currently holds, with Ipsos’ projections suggesting National Rally could win between 132 to 152 seats.
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