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Louise Thomas
Editor
The Conservatives have kicked off a leadership contest after Rishi Sunak led the party to its worst election defeat in history.
A string of senior figures have thrown their hats in the ring to succeed the former PM and lead the party through the next five years in opposition.
Possible candidates must win the support of 10 Conservative MPs before the Monday deadline in order to make it onto the ballot paper.
With the shortlist to be whittled down gradually until a final four are paraded in front of the party faithful at October’s Tory conference, The Independent looks at the runners and riders to take the reins from Mr Sunak.
Who has officially declared?
James Cleverly
James Cleverly became the first contender to formally launch a leadership bid, promising to unite the warring party weeks after Mr Sunak’s historic defeat.
Another former home secretary, he promised to “overturn Starmer’s loveless landslide” and “restore the confidence of the British people in us as a party”. Mr Cleverly’s appeal comes from having served as home and foreign secretary, two of the UK’s great offices of state. He is also seen as more moderate than candidates such as Mr Jenrick and Ms Badenoch, while still taking a hard-line approach to legal and illegal migration.
Odds: 11/2
Tom Tugendhat
One of the great hopes of the ‘One Nation’ Tories, security minister Tom Tugendhat also flew out of the traps to launch his leadership bid just a day after Mr Cleverly.
Mr Tugendhat stood unsuccessfully for the leadership two years ago, placing fifth in the contest which saw Liz Truss take over as prime minister.
He is considered to have grown in stature since then and has had a job in cabinet that he can use to argue he is a serious leader who can take his party through difficult times.
After formally entering the race, he highlighted his track record of delivery, having served in Iraq and Afghanistan, enjoyed a stint as security minister and “stood up to dictators in parliament”.
Odds: 9/2
Robert Jenrick
A one-time close ally of Mr Sunak, he also turned on the former PM over issues such as immigration and housebuilding in the dying days of his premiership.
Some Tory MPs, on both wings of the party, are wary of his apparent change of heart on the issue. But he is seen as someone with the politics to win back right-wing voters lost to Reform UK, with the personality of David Cameron to help the Tories win back voters lost to the Liberal Democrats in the blue wall.
His campaign team announced today that he has secured the support of 10 Conservative MPs and will be submitting the nomination to 1922 Committee chair Bob Blackman this morning.
Mr Jenrick’s campaign manager, Danny Kruger, said the former immigration minister has the “energy, temperament and policy agenda to take on our rivals and lead us back to power in 5 years.”
Odds: 7/2
Who is expected to join the race?
Kemi Badenoch
The combative former business secretary, who has been involved in a number of high-profile clashes, is seen as a strong contender. She had a good run when she competed for the leadership in 2022.
A one-time darling of the Conservative right she was seen to have blotted her copy book, however, when she canned a pledged bonfire of EU red tape. She has yet to formally announce her candidacy, but was one of seven candidates to request nomination forms for the contest. She has already set up a campaign website, which is currently undergoing maintenance.
Odds: 11/8
Priti Patel
The former home secretary is seen as someone who can unite the right of the party and its more moderate ‘One Nation’ members. She is also popular with grassroots Tories and has avoided alienating other MPs, unlike Suella Braverman.
Under the current rules, the party’s remaining rump of MPs get to decide which of the eventual leadership candidates will make it to the final two. At that stage more than 100,000 local party members then make their choice and crown the winner. The format will favour Ms Patel, as a Boris Johnson loyalist, who was made a Dame Commander of the Order of the British Empire (DBE) in his resignation honours.
She is also yet to formally launch her campaign, but collected the forms from Tory grandees overseeing the leadership contest.
Odds: 13/2
Suella Braverman
Another former home secretary who caused a shock when she dramatically resigned from Mr Sunak’s cabinet. At the time, she warned him that his Rwanda deportation plan would fail and that he was leading the party into electoral oblivion.
Her more extreme attacks on her own party are seen as helping the chances of her opponents, including Ms Patel. And she has suffered early setbacks, with key backers including right-winger Danny Kruger and her long-time mentor Sir John Hayes backing rivals instead.
Ms Braverman also requested a leadership pack, all but confirming her long-expected run. But she has also not yet formally launched her bid.
Odds: 22/1
Mel Stride
Mel Stride is a surprise entrant to the Tory leadership election, with the staunch Sunak ally painting himself as a One Nation figure to unite the MPs that remain.
Asked about a potential bid, the former work and pensions secretary said: “I want us to have that One Nation tradition.” He also argued against “ideological labels” and argued the party needs to do more to appeal to younger voters, with one in six Conservative backers set to die before the next general election.
Given each candidate needs the support of at least 10 MPs to progress to the next round, with front-runners hoping to pick up many more as a show of strength, Mr Stride’s hopes look slim.
Odds: 40/1
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