Robert Jenrick is within touching distance of Kemi Badenoch after a surge in his support, according to an exclusive Sky News poll of Tory members.
The latest YouGov survey of Conservative members for Sky News suggests there is a path to victory for all four candidates, although Tom Tugendhat faces a bigger hurdle than the rest.
The main shift in six weeks has been Ms Badenoch losing her commanding lead over Mr Jenrick among Tory members, according to the first poll of the people who will decide the next Tory leader since the field was reduced to four candidates.
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Tory members opted for Ms Badenoch by 59% to Mr Jenrick's 41% six weeks ago - an 18-point lead - if the pair were head to head in the final round.
Now they would choose Ms Badenoch by 52% to Mr Jenrick's 48%, only a four-point lead, according to the new Sky News poll of 802 Tory members conducted over nine days to Sunday night.
Ms Badenoch and Mr Jenrick came out as the top two in the contest after the early rounds of voting. Next week, MPs will reduce the number of contenders to two.
At the Conservative Party conference, rival campaigns have been targeting Ms Badenoch by seizing her remarks about maternity pay.
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Mr Jenrick's campaign believes they have more chance of winning without Ms Badenoch in the final, while either James Cleverly or Mr Tugendhat are only likely to get in the race if she is eliminated.
One of the candidates representing the more moderate, one nation wing of the party could yet win the contest.
The polls show Mr Cleverly trailing Mr Jenrick by just four points in the final round. If they are head to head, Mr Jenrick gets 52% and Mr Cleverly 48%. Against Ms Badenoch, the gap is slightly bigger - eight points - with her on 54% and him on 46%.
Mr Tugendhat fares the worst in the final round, according to the polling. He would lose to both Ms Badenoch and Mr Jenrick 58% to 42% - by 16 points.
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