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Louise Thomas

Editor

As the Conservative Party faces an uncertain political future ahead of the next general election, questions loom over its leadership and direction.

The leadership contest is now front and centre, with James Cleverly, Kemi Badenoch, Robert Jenrick, and Tom Tugendhat all competing for control. At the same time, former Tory MPs, ousted in July’s general election, are reflecting on the party’s missteps and discussing how to rebuild support.

With challenges coming from both the Liberal Democrats and Labour, as well as internal divisions, the party is under pressure to redefine its strategy, values, and future direction.

This year’s Conservative Party conference in Birmingham provides a pivotal moment for reflection and debate. It stands in stark contrast to the 2023 gathering, when Rishi Sunak’s government made a series of last-minute policy announcements, including offshoring prisoners, cutting civil servants, and controversially scrapping HS2.

As the conference unfolds, I’ve been addressing your questions on the leadership contest, the fallout from the election defeat, and the public’s growing interest in the party’s stance on private donations.

Here are six questions from Independent readers – and my answers from the “Ask Me Anything” event.

Q: What are Tories doing in response to the Liberal Democrats’ election success?

Charlie Mansell

A: This is a question that Tories don’t ask themselves enough, much to the relief of Lib Dems. The Tory party seems to be more focused on winning back defectors to Reform than defectors to the Lib Dems (or Labour). The Lib Dems have shown themselves flexible enough to appeal to soft Tories across almost the whole of the south of England. They don’t need initiatives such as the Peel Group or the Orange Book, they just put Ed Davey on a surfboard and flood a constituency with leaflets about whatever the big thing is locally – usually opposition to development.

If the Tories spend too much time trying to appeal to Reform voters, they risk entrenching the Lib Dems in the 60 seats they gained from them and losing more seats to the Lib Dems next time.

Q: Does anyone think this privately financed party has any political philosophy other than to protect the wealthy and demonise the poor?

Geoff Allibone

A: We have had a Conservative prime minister for 62 per cent of the time since the Second World War, winning about half of the two-party vote.

If the Tory party were purely a party of the rich, it wouldn’t have been able to do that – unless you are one of those bridge buyers who believe in the false consciousness of the British electorate on an epic scale.

Q: Does the Tory conference matter at all?

Nick Michaels

A: Yes of course it does. Sean O’Grady has a good article on The Independent website drawing the parallel with Tory conferences in 1963 and 2005, which also coincided with leadership contests, and in which a lacklustre performance by the front runner resulted in an upset.

I am not sure that whoever becomes Tory leader this time will ever be prime minister, but the choice will make a difference in politics over the next five years.

Q: Will future Tory candidates guarantee they will not accept private donations in any capacity? If not, why not? Do they hold themselves to a higher/lower standard than others?

Stephen Harper

A: It is dangerous to hold yourself or your party out as of a higher moral standard than your opponents, as Keir Starmer has discovered. Whoever becomes Conservative leader would be wise to avoid it. But both parties ought to rule out the acceptance of personal gifts above a certain value.

Starmer seems to have assumed that the suits, the glasses and the Taylor Swift tickets were all right because they were declared, and because they were part of being a public figure. It was a mistake given he had taken such a high moral tone with Boris Johnson, not to mention Rishi Sunak’s helicopter rides.

Q: Are the Tories now a far-right party?

Christopher1959

A: I think the terms “right” and “left” are of limited use in analysing contemporary politics. The terms “far-right” and “far-left” are even less useful. I think it is always worth asking people what they mean by any of these terms, or at least asking them to try to make their point without using them.

Wanting less immigration is not an extreme position, for example; indeed it is the centre ground. Wanting to withdraw from the European Court of Human Rights is more controversial, but Tony Blair, David Blunkett and Jack Straw found the ECHR frustrating and started to seek international support for changing it.

Q: Will voters simply return to the Tories if Labour fails in government?

Relatex

A: This is the line taken by one former minister I spoke to: he had thought the general election defeat was so bad that it would take more than one parliamentary term to fight back, but that Labour had got off to such a bad start that he now thought there was hope of turning things round in time for the next election, in 2028 or 2029.

I think this is too optimistic for the Conservatives. The fundamentals are very much against them. The main one is that a large section of former Tory voters feel betrayed on the issue of immigration. They are unlikely to be won back by any Tory leader who was a minister in the post-Brexit period – not even one who resigned as immigration minister (rather late in the day).

Labour hasn’t had the best start, but its problems are serious rather than fundamental. They would have to make a terrible mess of the NHS and the economy to lose.

These questions and answers were part of an ‘Ask Me Anything’ hosted by John Rentoul at 4pm BST on Monday 30 September. Some of the questions and answers have been edited for this article. You can read the full discussion in the comments section of the original article.

John also sends a weekly Commons Confidential newsletter exclusive to Independent Premium subscribers, taking you behind the curtain of Westminster. If this sounds like something you would be interested in, head here to find out more.

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