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Rachel Reeves’ Budget is a make-or-break moment for Sir Keir Starmer’s government, potentially sparking a decade of national renewal – or sowing the seeds of Labour’s downfall.
The prime minister’s poll ratings are at rock bottom after just over 100 days in charge, and the much-hyped “tough choices” to be unveiled on October 30 will likely do little to help boost his appeal.
As the driving force behind the financial statement, expected to entail £40bn worth of tax hikes and spending cuts, much of the backlash has and will focus on decisions taken by Ms Reeves.
But as the man with ultimate responsibility for the government’s actions, Sir Keir is also set to feel the heat.
So it has not helped the prime minister at all that, as Labour hurtles towards its biggest test since coming to power, splits in his cabinet over the Budget have taken over the headlines.
At least three of Sir Keir’s most senior ministers, including deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, have written to the PM to raise concerns over the “huge” cuts in store for their departments.
Joining Ms Rayner in expressing discomfort over the harsh spending cuts were justice secretary Shabana Mahmood and transport secretary Louise Haigh.
The ministers, who do not enjoy the spending protections of the health, defence and education departments, raised fears about the impacts of a reduction in spending on what they are able to deliver.
One of the ministers told The Times such a “huge” reduction in spending would undermine the government’s growth agenda and therefore be “totally self-defeating”.
But others have raised fears that, as well as restricting long-term investment, the cuts would have a damaging impact on their day-to-day work.
Allies of the PM and chancellor said it was part of the process for ministers to try to squeeze as much funding as possible from the Treasury ahead of a Budget. But details of complaints from ministers being leaked, initially to Bloomberg, are only the latest public display of disunity in the PM’s top team. Some ministers are facing spending cuts of up to a fifth, which will pile pressure on already-stretched departments.
Asked about the potential cuts on Thursday, former Home Office special adviser and criminal justice commentator Danny Shaw said cuts of up to 20 per cent would be “devastating” to a department like the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) and would “destroy the criminal justice system in many ways”.
However sources in the MoJ dismissed suggestions the cuts would be as deep as 20 per cent.
Deep cuts would also affect the running of Ms Rayner’s Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government and Ms Haigh’s Department for Transport as both embark on radical overhauls. Ms Rayner’s department is at the heart of Labour’s mission to build 1.5m homes before the next general election, while Ms Haigh is overseeing the renationalisation of the railways.
The scale of the proposed cuts should come as little surprise to ministers, with the first three months of Labour’s term having been spent warning about the dire state of the public finances.
And whatever the substance of the ministers’ complaints, the writing, and subsequent leaking, of their letters to Sir Keir undermines the idea his top team is unified.
While the PM and chancellor are not facing an outright rebellion ahead of their first Budget in charge, they clearly have work to do convincing everyone of its merits.
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