General election polls: Are Labour or the Conservatives on track to win in July?

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has settled on 4 July for the general election after months of speculation, but while the economic news is good, with inflation coming down, the polls are still heavily against the Tories.

Senior Conservatives were called in for a Cabinet meeting on Wednesday afternoon, with ministers changing travel plans, including foreign secretary David Cameron and defence secretary Grant Shapps.

“Spoiler alert - there is going to be a general election in the second half of this year,” said Mr Sunak when challenged by SNP Westminster Leader Stephen Flynn during PMQs at lunchtime before taking to a podium in Downing Street later in the afternoon.

Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour has a 23-point lead in the latest poll on voter intentions from Techne UK, with the Tory-Labour gap remaining wide over the past few months.

The data is taken from 1,641 surveyed individuals across the UK, weighted to be representative of the population.

At just 21 per cent of the vote, the Conservatives are at one of their lowest levels of popularity with the electorate under Mr Sunak.

If Mr Sunak was hoping to wait for the polls to swing in his favour before calling the election, he will have been disappointed. Labour have polled consistently in the region of 44 per cent and the Conservatives have been shedding more points since January.

Reform UK and the Lib Dems are tied as the third highest polling parties, each snatching up 12 per cent. Both parties could be picking up support from historical Tory voters.

Satisfaction with both Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer remains poor, with both polling negatively overall since November 2022, according to a separate monthly poll by Ipsos UK.

The data is taken from 1,000 British adults surveyed each month, answering the question: “Are you satisfied/dissatisfied with how ... is doing his job as Prime Minister / as leader of the Labour Party?”

Despite low figures overall, satisfaction has jumped for the Labour leader in the past month, with a 13-point boost from -31 per cent to -18 per cent.

Mr Sunak saw a 5-point jump in the same period, from -59 per cent to -55 per cent. This puts Mr Starmer at a 37-point lead in net satisfaction.

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