Only a few days after Hurricane Debby roared into Florida, another tropical storm is brewing in the Atlantic.
The storm, which is currently named Potential Tropical Cyclone 5, may be about to strengthen into a tropical depression, and then into a tropical storm.
After it reaches tropical storm strength, the system will be dubbed Tropical Storm Ernesto, which is the predetermined name for the fifth tropical storm of the 2024 hurricane season.
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The system is now located in the Atlantic, north of Suriname and French Guiana, but NOAA models forecast that it will move westward toward the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico in the coming days.
"Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression later today or tonight and become a tropical storm as it nears the Leeward Islands," NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in a public advisory on Monday.
The NHC said that there is a 90 percent chance of the system becoming a tropical storm within the next 48 hours.
"On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday evening," the NHC said.
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Models show that the storm is currently expected to move toward the north after hitting Puerto Rico, heading toward Bermuda, possibly strengthening as it goes.
"Each model is built a little differently and interprets the atmosphere and storm dynamics in slightly different ways," Sam Lillo, a forecast engineer at DTN Weather, told Newsweek.
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A storm becomes a tropical depression when it develops a defined circulation and sustained wind speeds of up to 38 mph. These storms often bring heavy rain and potential flooding, but it lacks the well-organized spiral bands of stronger systems.
If a tropical depression strengthens, and its sustained wind speeds increase to between 39 mph and 73 mph, it is then classified as a tropical storm. At this stage, it usually becomes more organized, with a more defined circulation.
If a tropical storm continues to intensify, reaching sustained wind speeds of 74 mph or higher, it is then classified as a hurricane.
Tropical storm watches are in place for various islands across the Caribbean, including St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Guadeloupe, the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.
"Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands by later today into Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday," the NHC said in a forecast discussion.
Puerto Rico is forecast to receive up to 10 inches of rain as the storm hits, as well as between 1 and 3 feet of storm surge.
"A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix," the NHC said.
"A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves."
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