A new tropical storm may be brewing in the Atlantic, and it's heading towards the U.S.
This potential storm may form from an area of low pressure about to emerge in the Central Tropical Atlantic, and has a 20 percent chance of becoming a cyclone in the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The storm, if it forms, is forecast to move to the northwest, sending it towards the Caribbean islands and possibly the southern U.S.
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"An area of low pressure could form in the central portion of the Tropical Atlantic in a few days. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of the system this weekend into early next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph," the NHC said in a Tropical Weather Outlook on Wednesday.
The NHC estimates that there is a near zero percent chance of the low-pressure zone becoming a cyclone in the next 48 hours, but a 20 percent chance in the next seven days.
NOAA defines a cyclone as any large-scale air mass that rotates around a strong center of low atmospheric pressure, with a tropical cyclone being a cyclone that originates over warm tropical oceans.
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The weakest form of a tropical cyclone is a tropical depression, which are clusters of thunderstorms with a defined low-pressure center, but lacking the well-organized structure of stronger tropical systems. When wind speeds exceed 39 mph, the cyclone becomes a tropical storm, and if winds reach 74 mph, the storm is defined as a hurricane, or in the Northwest Pacific, a typhoon.
A second cyclone may also be cooking in the Western Atlantic, according to the NHC, with a 10 percent chance of cyclone formation both within 48 hours and within seven days. This potential storm is expected to move northwards over the coming days, so does not look likely to hit the U.S. at this point.
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"An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda is producing a small area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to limit additional development of this system during the next day or so while the low moves northward to north-northeastward at around 10 mph," the NHC said in the Tropical Weather Outlook.
Cyclones form in the Atlantic Ocean due to a combination of several meteorological and oceanic factors, including ocean temperature, atmospheric moisture, wind shear, and pressure systems.
Warm ocean waters provide the energy needed for the cyclone to form and intensify, which is why the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June to November. Additionally, high moisture levels contribute to the formation of thunderstorms, and low-pressure systems cause warm, moist air from surrounding high-pressure areas to flow inward, which cools and condenses, releasing heat and forming clouds and thunderstorms.
High wind shear—a significant difference in wind speed and direction at different heights—can disrupt the organization of a developing cyclone and inhibit its growth, so low wind shear is ideal for cyclone formation.
As these two disruptions grow in the Atlantic, three tropical storms are simultaneously blowing across the Pacific Ocean. Tropical storms Hone, Gilma, and Hector are all moving westwards, with Hone and Gilma having been downgraded from hurricanes over the past few days.
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