A cyclone brewing off the coast of the southeastern United States may soon strengthen into a tropical storm, the National Hurricane Center has said.
The weather system—named Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight—is moving toward the U.S. coast and is expected to make landfall in South Carolina this afternoon, causing flash flooding across the region.
Upon reaching tropical storm strength, it would become Tropical Storm Helene, the eighth named storm of the 2024 hurricane season.
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"Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the system reaches the coast, and the low still has a chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical storm," the NHC said in a public advisory.
"Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center," the agency added.
The NHC estimated a 70 percent chance of the system becoming a tropical storm within the next 48 hours.
"The chances of the system becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone may be starting to decrease given the current structure, and since it only has another 12 hours or so before moving inland. Most of the intensity guidance also suggests that the maximum winds should gradually decrease as the low approaches the coast, although tropical-storm-force winds are still expected to occur within the warning areas today," the NHC said in a forecast discussion.
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A potential tropical cyclone is a weather system that has not yet developed into a tropical depression or storm but has the potential to do so soon. The NHC uses this term when the system is likely to make landfall within 48 hours, prompting the need for warnings. A tropical storm is a cyclonic storm that has organized thunderstorms and a defined circulation with sustained wind speeds ranging from 39 mph to 73 mph.
The storm is expected to rapidly weaken after it makes landfall, with wind speeds dropping quickly as the system travels inland.
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"Further weakening is forecast after the system moves inland, and it will likely dissipate over the Carolinas by late Wednesday," the NHC said.
A tropical storm warning is in effect between Edisto Beach, South Carolina, and Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina. Tropical-storm-force winds are forecast for the area, and intense rainfall is also expected, with up to 10 inches of rain falling in certain regions.
"Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 10 inches, across portions of northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina today into tonight. Across the remainder of North Carolina, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 6 inches, are expected through Tuesday," the NHC said.
This rainfall may lead to flash flooding across the Carolinas tonight, with continued flooding possible on Tuesday and Wednesday. Additionally, storm surges of up to 3 feet are forecast along the North Carolina coast, depending on the tide.
"The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline," the NHC said. The agency added: "The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves."
"Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances."
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