The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking an evolving storm in the western Caribbean that is expected to intensify and head northwards in the coming days, possibly making landfall in the United States by Thursday.
A tropical storm will likely form in the next two days, which could develop into a hurricane before reaching Florida or the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast later this week, with residents being warned to closely monitor the progress of the storm system.
"Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea," the NHC said in a Tropical Weather Outlook.
It continued: "Environmental conditions appear favorable for further development of this system. A tropical depression or storm is likely to form within the next day or two as the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where additional development is expected."
The system has an 80 percent chance of forming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours and a 90 percent chance in the next seven days.
"Everyone along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region needs to be prepared for hurricane impacts," AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said in an update, adding that the depression has the potential to become the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. this season.
Gulf Coast residents, from New Orleans, Louisiana, to Key West, Florida, including the Tampa Bay area, should stay alert and monitor the potential storm's progress.
DaSilva also warned that tall pine trees along Florida's Big Bend and Nature Coast areas pose a particular threat. "Those trees can be incredibly dangerous in hurricane-force winds. We saw a lot of trees fall onto houses and damage parked cars when Idalia hit the Big Bend region last August," he said.
Newsweek has contacted AccuWeather via email for comment on Monday.
Tropical depressions are the weakest type of tropical cyclones. When a depression's maximum sustained winds increase to 39 miles per hour, it becomes a tropical storm, at which point it is given a name.
If the winds reach 74 mph or higher, the system is classified as a hurricane, typhoon or tropical cyclone, depending on its origin. The term "hurricane" is used in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific and eastern North Pacific.
According to the NHC's convention, the storm will be named Helene if it reaches tropical storm strength.
"The system is forecast to strengthen while moving northwards over the Gulf of Mexico, bringing a potential impacts from storm surge, heavy rainfall and strong winds to portions of the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast," the NHC wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter, on Monday.
It added: "Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts, residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place."
Regardless of further development, the weather system will produce heavy rainfall across eastern parts of Nicaragua, Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula through Wednesday, as well as near Cuba and the Cayman Islands through Thursday.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are possible in these areas, the NHC said.
Meanwhile, in the eastern and central Atlantic, another tropical disturbance has a 70 percent chance of tropical storm formation in the next seven days. The depression is currently located between western Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands, and is forecast to move west-northwestward over the course of the week.
The storms come following a warning from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service that 2024 would see above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin. The enhanced activity was expected as a consequence of near-record warm ocean temperatures coinciding with the development of the La Niña weather phenomenon, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which favor tropical storm formation.
The hurricane season officially ends on November 30.
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