A major hurricane—likely to be dubbed Hurricane Helene—is brewing in the Caribbean Sea and is heading towards the Gulf of Mexico.
Currently classified as "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine" by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the storm is expected to build to hurricane strength as it passes over warm waters before making landfall on the Gulf Coast early on Thursday evening.
A media advisory sent out by forecasters at AccuWeather is predicting winds of up to 160 miles per hour and 24 inches of rainfall in the worst-hit areas.
"This will probably be the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. this season," Dann Mitchell, a professor of climate science specializing in extreme weather events at the University of Bristol, U.K., told Newsweek. "If it makes landfall as a Category 4 hurricane, then that's incredibly serious."
As of the latest forecasts, the storm is expected to make landfall as a hurricane of Category 3 (sustained winds of 111-129 mph) strength, but "could reach Category 4 status (130-156 mph) at some point while it is over the Gulf of Mexico," according to AccuWeather.
The NHC has issued several warnings and advisories for residents in effected areas.
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Indian Pass Florida southward to Bonita Beach, Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.
"A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours," the NHC said in its public advisory.
Storm surges of up to 15 feet are expected in the area near and just east of where the eye of the storm makes landfall. However, storm surges of up to six feet will likely be widespread throughout the Tampa Bay area.
Meanwhile, the NHC has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Gulf Coast of Florida from Englewood northward and westward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay. "A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous," the NHC said.
According to Mitchell, the storm will draw its energy from abnormally warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico. "There's a lot of things that feed into it, but ocean temperature is probably the most important thing," he said.
"The specific region is the Gulf where it's based; those surface temperatures and the deeper ocean temperatures are particularly warm. In fact, they're the warmest on record."
Mitchell explained that, in particular, the warm water beneath the surface allows the storm to continue to build, maintaining its heat source even as the ocean is churned up.
Also contributing to the growing storm is a lack of wind shear—the difference in wind direction and speed at different altitudes. High wind shear tears a burgeoning storm apart; without it, the system can grow more and more organized.
"As soon as a tropical cyclone hits the land, it's cut off from its energy source, so it weakens," Mitchell said. As it travels inland, the storm will lose some wind intensity, but heavy rains will likely continue.
"As the storm continues inland, there will be flooding, rainfall and winds that will spread across the Southeast, southern Appalachians, mid-South, the Ozarks and the mid-Mississippi River Valley late into the week," AccuWeather meteorologist Alexander Duffus previously told Newsweek.
The storm is forecast to creep inland throughout Thursday evening through to Saturday.
Before reaching the U.S., tropical storm conditions are forecast over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatán Peninsula, bringing the possibility of flooding and mudslides.
NHC Hurricane watches are also in place for Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico and the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.
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