Some of the scariest scenarios in climate science come from the concept of tipping points, small events that trigger larger, systemic changes that amplify and build on themselves. Scientists warn that warming could push some natural systems to a point of no return, including the collapse of large ice sheets and the loss of coral reefs.

Tim Lenton, a professor of climate change at the University of Exeter, is one of the scientists who has raised those alarms. But his latest work turns the tipping points idea on its head.

"We need to find and trigger positive tipping points where change becomes self-accelerating and self-propelling," Lenton told Newsweek in an interview in advance of the release of a new report on positive tipping points during Climate Week NYC.

The report identifies the policy changes that have the best chance of kicking off a cascade of positive tipping points to speed up the adoption of renewable energy, electric vehicles and cleaner heating appliances such as heat pumps.

Exeter Professor of Climate Change Tim Lenton has warned about dangerous climate tipping points society should avoid. His latest work looks at positive ones that could hasten a clean energy transition. Exeter Professor of Climate Change Tim Lenton has warned about dangerous climate tipping points society should avoid. His latest work looks at positive ones that could hasten a clean energy transition. Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Getty

Lenton and his co-authors modeled the likely effects of subsidies, carbon taxes and regulatory mandates. In this conversation, lightly edited for length, Lenton explains why they landed on mandates as the most effective approach and shared examples of positive tipping points the world is already approaching.

Newsweek: I think a lot of our readers who follow climate change news are primed to think of tipping points as something we want to avoid. But the approach you're taking here is a different take, right?

Tim Lenton: I'm known for my work alerting people to the bad tipping points that you just mentioned. But a tipping point is a general phenomenon that sometimes in a complex system a small change makes a big difference. It could be a good change or a bad change. Now what I'm emphasizing is if we want to avoid those bad climate tipping points, we know we need to act a whole lot faster.

There are the same ingredients in the economy. There are strong reinforcing or amplifying processes that can take a small change and turn it into a big change. So, the more people who buy an electric vehicle, and especially the battery in it, the more batteries get made and the cheaper the next one gets to make. And that means batteries have come down in price tenfold in a decade. And they've got about three times the range they had a decade ago, and those are really powerful amplifiers because they make electric vehicles more attractive, more affordable for the next consumer.

And so you get this idea of a critical mass tipping point where one more person adopting an electric vehicle could tip the majority to adopt.

"If we want to avoid those bad climate tipping points," Professor Tim Lenton said, "we know we need to act a whole lot faster." "If we want to avoid those bad climate tipping points," Professor Tim Lenton said, "we know we need to act a whole lot faster." Courtesy of University of Exeter

What are some examples of these positive tipping points that we might be getting close to?

Norway has already tipped its market to electric vehicles. More 85 percent of Norwegians are buying battery electric vehicles, and if you total all types of plug-in hybrid, it's well over 90 percent now.

And in the U.K., where I come from, we've managed to tip away from coal burning for power generation. It was like 40 percent of power generation in 2012. By 2017, it was down at less than 5 percent and now we're closing the last coal power station.

And on the flip side for power, we've seen positive tipping towards exponential growth of offshore wind power in the U.K. and, in a global context, there's a tipping point for solar panels which we think we might be past now, it's got its own momentum.

It's tempting to think that we'll hit those tipping points just through the economics and policies already in place. Is that so? Or is there a need for a nudge, new regulation, to get us to the tipping point?

Well, that's exactly the question we're trying to address, and which policy would be most effective. There is some degree of truth that even under current policies we're seeing the green clean alternatives get cheaper, as well as better, because the reinforcing feedbacks are there. So, for several of these things we've looked at, there would be a tipping point anyway.

But the question is, can we bring it forward? Because we know we're not going fast enough to shut down greenhouse gas emissions.

For heat pumps as an alternative heating system, for example, the tipping point doesn't really happen in a global sense or it's quite delayed. And with electric trucks, they'd be starting to penetrate the market a little bit by 2050, but there'd still be an overwhelming dominance of diesel trucks.

So, although there's change coming, crucially, it's about what policy can bring it forward.

Economists have been busy telling us that a single price on carbon across the economy is the magic policy wand. But everybody knows taxes are unpopular, and if you scratch your head for a minute and you think about it, it doesn't really make sense to deploy one price on carbon for all activities if you want to tip change.

Because some sectors are really near the tipping point, like the power sector, and other things are further away, like the steel sector.

So, then we looked at mandates. You just say, 'We're going to phase out coal power by 2035,' for example. Or you can't sell petrol and diesel cars after year 2035.

These mandates are usually the most effective things because they force innovation, basically. The mandates really give a tipping to 100 percent electric vehicles, and they give a really large penetration of heat pumps, and a large penetration of renewables in the power sector.

So yeah, it makes a big difference.

With the positive benefits that would occur from these tipping points, we're not just talking about sacrifices we'd have to make in order to meet this goal. You're talking about jobs, the health savings from reduced air pollution, etcetera. Do you think that viewing the issue from the perspective of these potential positive tipping points might influence the politics around, say, adopting a clean technology mandate?

I really hope so, because I think we need to be telling ourselves a compelling story, this is a vision to be seized. Look at all these better jobs that are being created, and the GDP growth as well as the cleaner air and the healthier citizens. You know, let's seize this together.

We're not going to achieve bold targets or accelerate change unless we believe we can.

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