Pacific Island nations such as Tuvalu, Kiribati, and Fiji will experience at least 8 inches of sea-level rise over the next 30 years, a new analysis by NASA's sea-level change science team shows.
This increase is expected to occur regardless of changes in greenhouse gas emissions during this period. Newsweek contacted Tuvalu's Climate Change Department for comment via email on Thursday.
The study, conducted at the request of several Pacific Island nations and in coordination with the U.S. Department of State, also produced high-resolution maps showing areas vulnerable to high-tide flooding by the 2050s. These outline the potential for floods under various emissions scenarios.
"Sea level will continue to rise for centuries, causing more frequent flooding," Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer, director of ocean physics programs for NASA's Earth Science Division, said in a statement.
The analysis reveals a stark increase in the number of high-tide flooding days for nearly all Pacific Island nations by the 2050s. Areas in Tuvalu now with fewer than five high-tide flood days annually could see an average of 25 per year.
In Kiribati, regions currently facing fewer than five flood days a year could experience an average of 65 such days annually.
Grace Malie, a youth leader from Tuvalu involved with the Rising Nations Initiative, highlighted the immediacy of the threat. "I am living the reality of climate change. "Everyone [in Tuvalu] lives by the coast or along the coastline, so everyone gets heavily affected by this," she said in a statement.
On Wednesday, Feleti Teo, the prime minister of Tuvalu, said sea-level rise is finally on the global agenda while addressing the United Nations (U.N.) General Assembly in New York. "The existential threat we face is not of our making," he said, adding, "but it will remake us."
In 2021, Simon Kofe, Tuvalu's then-foreign minister, filmed a speech for the U.N. climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland, standing knee-deep in seawater in an attempt to highlight the problem.
While the sea-level rise is relatively consistent across the Pacific region, its impacts will vary between countries. Some nations may face nuisance flooding at their airports several times a year, while others could experience frequent neighborhood flooding equivalent to inundation for nearly half the year.
Ben Hamlington, NASA's sea-level change science team lead, noted the need for more on-the-ground data to complement satellite observations.
This combination of space-based and ground-based measurements could provide more precise projections and a better understanding of the impacts on Pacific Island countries.
The study underscores the urgent need for climate action. As Malie said, "the future of the young people of Tuvalu is already at stake. Climate change is more than an environmental crisis. It is about justice, survival for nations like Tuvalu, and global responsibility."
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