Nine flower species and three insect species that are designated state species may be at risk of extinction by the 2080s because of the effects of climate change, researchers have found.
Two-thirds of state flowers and over half of all state insects are expected to see a "substantial decrease in regions with favorable climates within the states they represent," according to a preprint paper, which has yet to be formally peer-reviewed by other scientists.
These species' declines will be due to changes in the temperature and rainfall in the states where they are found.
"Certain states may no longer possess suitable habitats for their state-designated species," the researchers wrote in the paper. "Our findings indicate that cultural heritage might be at risk due to reduced habitat suitability and local extinctions driven by climate change."
"Any species requires specific physical and biological conditions and resources for its survival: things like temperature, humidity, sunlight, but also their interactions with other living organisms—e.g., preys, predators, competition for food and shelter, etcetera," Frédérik Saltré, a research fellow in ecology at Australia's Flinders University, who was not involved in the research, told Newsweek.
"These factors make up a species' 'niche,' which determines its geographic distribution. Climate change disrupts these conditions—like temperature, rainfall and food availability—pushing habitats beyond species' tolerance and making these areas uninhabitable," he said.
The researchers analyzed how the habitats of the 64 state flowers and the 68 state insects will change under the most extreme warming scenario (SSP5-8.5), using computer models.
The researchers found that 42 (or 66 percent) of the state flowers will see a decrease in suitable habitat in the future, which may lead to local extinctions of nine (or 14 percent) of the species in their designating states. Some species at risk include orchard apple (Malus domestica) in Arkansas, Montana's bitterroot (Lewisia rediviva) and the showy lady's slipper (Cypripedium reginae) in Minnesota.
As for the state insects, 35 (or 51 percent) of species are expected to be threatened in the future, and three of the species may face local extinction in the future.
"Among different species groups, climate change has a slightly stronger negative effect on butterflies than on bees or ladybugs," the researchers wrote.
This effect appears to be stronger for flower and insect species that are native to the state than those that were introduced there.
"We showed that native state flowers tend to be more vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change than non-native state flowers. This situation is also the case for state insects," the researchers wrote.
The loss of species may be a major blow to the cultural heritage of the states. Luckily, the emissions scenario that these predictions are based on may not fully come to fruition, thanks to efforts to limit U.S. emissions, Saltré said.
"The extreme SSP5-8.5 scenario, projecting up to 5.7 degrees C warming by 2100, is increasingly seen as less likely due to global efforts to reduce emissions and transition to renewable energy. SSP5-8.5 is quite speculative because originally, this scenario intended to explore the worst-case climate outcome rather than a projection of the most likely future," he said.
He continued: "With the implementation of current climate pledges and mitigation measures, the world seems to be on a path closer to SSP2-4.5, which predicts 2.7 degrees C to 3.6 degrees C warming by 2100. While less severe, this still exceeds the Paris Agreement's 1.5 degrees C goal, underscoring the continued urgency for climate action."
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Reference
Ge, X., Zou, Y., Hager, H. A., & Newman, J. A. (2024). Wilting Wildflowers and Bummed-out Bees: Climate Change Threatens U.S. State Symbols. https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.09.08.611901
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