Atmospheric rivers—the massive bands of water vapor that deliver crucial rainfall to regions worldwide—are steadily moving toward Earth's poles, a shift that could dramatically alter precipitation patterns and water resources.
A recent study, published in Science Advances, documents a 6 to 10 degree latitudinal shift in atmospheric river patterns over the past 40 years.
These weather phenomena, while perhaps best known for drenching the U.S. West Coast, play a vital role in delivering rainfall across multiple continents, from Southeast Asia to the U.K.
The implications of this geographic shift are far-reaching. Regions that historically relied on atmospheric rivers for their water supply, such as California, where these systems provide up to half the annual rainfall, may face increasing uncertainty.
Meanwhile, higher-latitude areas like British Columbia and Alaska are experiencing more frequent deluges, leading to heightened flood risks and potential infrastructure challenges.
"Our research finds a trend over the past four decades: an increase in atmospheric river frequency is significant along the 50-60 degree latitudes in both hemispheres, while a decrease in atmospheric river frequency is observed in the subtropics along the 30 degree latitudes," Zhe Li, lead author of the study, told Newsweek.
The study identifies cooling trends in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean as a primary driver of this poleward migration.
This cooling, often associated with La Niña conditions, triggers a complex chain reaction in global atmospheric circulation patterns, ultimately pushing these rivers of moisture toward higher latitudes.
For communities in subtropical regions, the northward drift of atmospheric rivers could spell trouble. Areas that depend on these systems for filling reservoirs and sustaining agriculture may face more frequent and severe droughts as their reliable moisture source becomes increasingly erratic.
"Areas like California, especially southern regions, might experience fewer atmospheric river events, which could worsen water scarcity and contribute to prolonged drought conditions," Li said. "The Pacific Northwest may experience more frequent and intense atmospheric river events, leading to increased risk of flooding and landslides."
He added, "This shift in atmospheric river activity can significantly affect water resources, agriculture and infrastructure, making it crucial for local governments to adapt to these changing weather patterns."
This shift also poses concerns for the Arctic region, where increased moisture from atmospheric rivers can accelerate sea ice melt. These systems may be responsible for up to 36 percent of the observed increase in summer moisture across the Arctic since 1979, potentially creating a feedback loop that could further amplify global warming.
While natural climate variations appear to be the primary force behind these changes so far, human-induced global warming is expected to intensify the impact of atmospheric rivers in the future.
"Atmospheric rivers are likely to become more intense in the future as the planet warms, since a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, leading to heavier rainfall," Li said.
But despite this increase in severity, whether the shift to the poles will continue remains an open question. Where atmospheric rivers land depends largely on whether the Pacific Ocean is in an El Niño or La Niña "mode."
Predicting these weather patterns into the future, Li said, is challenging, "but our study provides an improved understanding of the mechanisms driving the recent poleward shift."
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Reference
Li, Z., & Ding, Q. (2024). A global poleward shift of atmospheric rivers. Science Advances, 10(41), eadq0604. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adq0604
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