The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has released its latest predictions for when hospitalizations are most likely to peak when it comes to COVID-19.
The virus has been a particular focus of this year's projections, with the government agency saying that hospitalizations could peak in late December, just in time for the Christmas holiday, if COVID-19 activity from the summer did not peak before the start of the respiratory disease season. The CDC also said that if the summer wave peaked before the respiratory season began, a smaller second wave could happen in mid-January.
Back in August, the CDC released an initial "Respiratory Disease Season Outlook" for this winter, combining expert opinion, historical data, and scenario modelling for flu, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and COVID-19 to help public health officials make decisions for the coming season. On Friday, the CDC released an October update to give more specific details and additional modelling results.
After a surge in COVID-19 cases this summer, infection rates seem to be on the decline. As of October 19, positive results account for only 5.6 percent of all tests, excluding at-home testing, in the United States, down 0.6 percent from the previous week.
The COVID surge this summer was largely driven by a new class of subvariants nicknamed FLiRT after the position of the mutations on the virus' spike proteins—the projections that allow them to enter our cells.
These proteins are also used as targets by immune systems and vaccinations, so changes in their structure can allow the virus to bypass the body's defenses more easily. However, existing vaccines are likely to provide at least some form of protection against more severe symptoms and long COVID-19.
As of October 26, the now-dominant FLiRT subvariant, KP. 3.1.1, accounted for more than 57 percent of all U.S. COVID-19 cases over the previous two weeks, according to the CDC, with the new XEC variant accounting for 17 percent.
The proportion of COVID cases attributable to the XEC variant have nearly doubled over the last fortnight, and many experts believe this variant may lead this winter's wave of infections.
While the CDC has said this winter peak is likely to be higher than what we saw over the summer, hospitalizations are likely to be lower than they were last year.
"According to data from the COVID-19-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET), the summer wave peaked the week ending August 10," the CDC said in a statement on Friday. "As a result, population immunity may be lower than it would be had the summer wave of infection continued to increase or if it had peaked at a higher rate."
As a result, vaccination will play an important role in minimizing hospitalizations.
"As of September 7, 24 percent of adults over the age of 18 report that they 'definitely will' receive a vaccine this year," the CDC continued. "If 24 percent of adults over the age of 18 receive the COVID-19 vaccine this year, up to 98,000 hospitalizations could be prevented. If vaccination rates double from last season's rates, up to 227,000 hospitalizations could be prevented."
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