The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has revealed how pollen can influence the weather, while developing a brand-new forecasting model.
Pollen is a great irritation to over 80 million Americans, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Many suffer from allergies when the powder blows from trees, grasses and weeds. It is particularly irritating in spring and summer, when it is high in quantity. Some suffer with allergies so badly that they need prescription medication to help their symptoms.
For this reason, NOAA's Global Systems Laboratory (GSL) has been working on a pollen forecast that will tell people when levels are either lower or higher in the air. This way, sufferers can stay informed about how much exposure they will be experiencing. The new model is called the Rapid-Refresh Chemistry (RAP-Chem) weather and atmospheric chemistry prediction system, NOAA says.
This forecast is not only able to predict how the weather can increase the amount of pollen, but also how the content in the air influences the climate. It is the first forecaster like this to be developed in the U.S.
The model found that suspended particles of pollen work to scatter the sunlight, NOAA says. This can, in turn, form clouds, affect the surrounding temperature and even the amount of rain.
"Pollen and its associated allergies are important components to people's everyday lives," researcher Jordan Schnell, a Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) scientist working at GSL, said in a statement.
"With real-time predictions of pollen and where it is transported, people can adjust their outdoor activities, medications and take precautions to ensure their well-being," Schnell added.
RAP-Chem works by combining weather and air-quality forecasting to track the levels of pollen, ozone, dust and smoke over a 48-hour period.
It then simulates how weather influences the amount of pollen in the air. It is emitted during the day by winds, while, at night, the emissions calm down and particles drop to the floor.
For example, high amount of rain tends to cleanse the air of any pollen, meaning that it will be less irritating for those with allergies at these times, NOAA says. Humidity can also work to break up the particles, making it easier to breathe in. This in turn also means pollen is less likely to influence the weather. Cold downdrafts, however, which usually accompany thunderstorms, can concentrate the particles in one place, making them irritating.
Although the model is still in experimental stages, RAP-Chem has been predicting pollen forecasts since 2022. NOAA says that it is performing in a similar fashion to commercial pollen forecasts.
NOAA is continuing to work with the CDC to develop RAP-Chem and to see whether forecasts are correlating with citizens seeking allergy relief.
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